Community Day Patterns

Sources have said that details on next month's edition of Community Day for Pokémon Go are due to be announced very soon. That would certainly demand speculation on the featured Pokémon, among other things. Whilst that takes place, it may be useful to note that most of the featured Pokémon have fallen into one of several patterns regarding their stages of evolution, and these patterns may become reference for the speculation. This post is to detail (at least some) of those possible patterns.

The most dominant pattern is for a Pokémon with three stages of evolution for its species family. As every starter Pokémon invariably falls into this pattern, they are to be expected as Community Day fodder. But realistically, any Pokémon with three evolutionary stages in the species family are likely fodders for Community Day, from the common (Weedle), uncommon (Swinub), and extremely rare (Beldum and other pseudo-Legendaries). Repeats of some of these species families are also possible, thanks to Charmander paving the way. On the whole, this may be considered the "basic" pattern with few deviations from it.

A specific but slight deviation of this pattern is for species families that have three stages, with the first stage being a baby form of the second stage. The featured Pokémon would be of the second stage, which is often or likely the most well-known member of the species family. The first Community Day of Pikachu would definitely fall into this pattern, as does Electabuzz and Magmar (two separate but equal editions) and Roselia. With these being exemplary, a few of the other remaining species families that fit this pattern may just get a shot at being featured in Community Day.

A couple of editions within the past year or so (Magikarp, Swablu), had seemingly defied the main pattern with only two stages of evolution. However, when examined, these two species families have something in common in that the second stage can then lead to a Mega Evolution, and this may be a pattern that future editions may take. It may be further noted that the former did not have its Mega Evolution debut on the same day, while the latter did, yet that may be only because the former had its Community Day just prior to the debut of Mega Evolution in general. It is very much likely that a future edition will feature a species family with two stages plus a Mega Evolution and have that debut on the same day. 

There's also one more pattern, but this one has only been proposed. The proposal would have the "original" forms of a species family as the primary feature (in the wild) and their regional forms as a secondary feature (in Research tasks, Eggs, Raids, and/or others). This was the exact way that Vulpix was proposed around a year ago for Community Day voting, though it did not make it against the others, not even as a possible runner-up, for which that's how Machop came to be long after the winner, Rhyhorn, was featured. Nevertheless, the proposed pattern may still remain on the table and could potentially be taken for a future edition.

After over three years of the event regularly taking place, regular patterns of the key featured Pokémon have become evident as well. While no pattern is explicitly set in stone, the way that the patterns have been established make them likely choices for editions as they come and go. That also becomes part of the (necessary) speculation that occurs as each new edition draws near. It seems very much true for the current case as well, which will make its true face be known soon to expectant Trainers and yet again affirm a pattern.

One year ago: Another Anime Dream

Two years ago: Cosplay Card, Fourth Version

Three years ago: Local Ex-Raid (and Complications), 6/21/2018

Four years ago: Resets and Redos